Iran oil well dispute with Iraq is a major strategic blunder

25 December 2009
Iran made a strategic mistake when it occupied an oil well in the Al-Fakkah area near the city of Al-Amarah in southern Iraq. The potential repercussions both regionally and internationally may be far more damaging to Iran than its enemies in Iraq and beyond could possibly have hoped for.

It is true that the Iranian authorities have corrected this disaster in part by withdrawing its forces from the area. However, the deep wound caused by this unjustified and condemnable occupation will not be easy to mend, and the consequences may linger for years to come. The Iranian Ambassador in Baghdad, Hasan Kazemi[-Qomi], broke his silence days after the incident and yesterday altogether denied that Iranian forces had occupied the aforementioned oil well at all, holding Iraqi forces responsible for the crisis. The question that is insistently asked is why neither this ambassador nor any high-level Iranian official issued a denial at the peak of the crisis.

We would not be surprised if parties linked to the US project in Iraq are behind the crisis, attempting to embroil Iran in a confrontation with Iraq or with the US forces stationed there. The Iranian leadership are presumably aware of such possibilities and should have acted accordingly, rather than offering excuses. The Iranian border differences with Iraq are well known and we are quite aware that Iran has ambitions to amend the border with Iraq in its favour.

It is no exaggeration to say that Iran has been the major beneficiary of the US occupation of Iraq and of the installation of its allies at the helm there. After all, Iran does not want to see a strong, cohesive, and united Iraq. The question that must be asked is: What are Iran's justifications for taking such a step at a time when it is quite aware that the occupation of the Iraqi oil well would undermine its allies in Iraq and consequently strengthen the position of their adversaries? It is feared that power has blinded the Iranian leadership, prompting it to behave in such an unwise, irrational, and illogical way and, consequently, make more enemies and lose many friends and allies.

The occupation of the Al-Fakkah oil well in southern Iraq was the most precious gift that the Iranian authorities could give the United States, which does not hide its intention to impose a strangulating economic blockade on Iran to pave the way for a military strike at a later stage.

Some Iranian officials may argue that they have enough means of power to cope with a blockade should it be imposed, foil its effects and, at the same time, confront any US and Israeli aggression. If that is true, it was inappropriate for Iran to take a step that would antagonize the Arab public against it and corroborate the argument about Iran's hostility to Arabs and its designs in Iraq.

The occupation of the Iraqi oil well, which was confirmed by the Iraqi Foreign Ministry under secretary and the Iraqi officials in Maysan Governorate, where the oil well is located, is a major strategic blunder that reflects a misreading of current developments in the region and plans by US forces stationed in Afghanistan and Iraq to strike Iran. If reports are true that the Iranian forces are still stationed in the area of the Iraqi oil well and have not completely withdrawn, Iran stands to lose still more.